2017年股市偏震荡，中枢逐步提升

风刀霜剑

　　一年之计在于春，对于2017年的A股走势，投资者如何未雨绸缪?两会召开在即，哪些投资领域可以期待?股票市场板块轮动较快，投资者如何把握住主题投资机会的“窍门”?2月22日，富国扬子基金课堂再次开讲，主讲嘉宾——富国基金公司多只王牌基金的基金经理张圣贤先生，为投资者呈上精彩市场分析，并回答了具有代表性的投资者提问。 扬子晚报记者 马燕
　　研判大势
　　今年股市偏震荡，中枢会逐步提升
　　提及今年的股市走势，张圣贤提出，不妨从三方面分析。首先，是企业的盈利问题，这是决定A股中长期走势的核心因素。而从今年来看，他在与投资者交流的过程中发现，大家的担心主要在于地产调控。不过，由于有些对冲手段，所以不必过于担心。举例而言，据媒体报道，今年23个省公布固定资产投资规划，已达到40万亿，对房地产市场是很好的对冲。
　　第二，中国经济是三驾马车：投资、出口、消费。今年1月份出口增速非常快，达到15.9%，由于今年春节是在1月份，去年春节是在2月份，相当于今年用三个星期左右的工作时间跟去年四个星期相比，同比保持了两位数增长，增速非常高。而且不仅仅是中国，韩国等以出口为主的市场同样出现两位数的增长。所以这一轮出口或者说全球贸易复苏，大背景是以美国、欧洲为代表的经济复苏。因此对经济的担忧今年可能没有大家想象的那么悲观。
　　第三，决定股市走势的还有流动性，流动性如果用指标来衡量就是利率。春节以后央行普遍上调了逆回购利率和MLF，但对全国工业生产的财务成本提升比较有限。
　　此外，还有对股市的信心问题。从2016年3月份开始，股市总体稳固向上，波动非常低。今年下半年在十九大召开之际市场会更加活跃。市场或者投资者对改革信心更足。总的来说对今年市场判断应该是偏震荡，但中枢会逐步提升，
　　解读新政
　　再融资新政后，壳资源当规避
　　近日，证监会出台再融资新政，对市场会有什么影响?张圣贤介绍说，2016年全年IPO发行融资额度为1600多亿，但2016年全年再融资额度达到1.8万亿，是IPO的10倍以上，因此从这个角度来说，真正对A股市场“抽血”最大的是再融资。而从新政主要变化来看，主要是四点：第一，对再融资的频率进行调整。过去，上一轮再融资融完了可以进行下一轮，这次有了18个月的期限。第二，再融资金额受到了限制。要求定向增发不能超过原来总股本的20%。第三，再融资定价基准日有调整。第四，跟资金脱虚入实的大方向相关，最近一个季度的财务报表上不能有太多的可交易性金融资产。他分析认为，新政有利于资本市场中长期健康发展，因为它确实让一部分企业不能随意融资，对中小投资者造成伤害。
　　而对于投资者而言，则要规避壳公司。过去A股喜欢炒ST股、壳公司，甚至有“站在风口上，猪都能飞起来”的说法。通过这次调整，将会发现“很多猪飞不起来了”，有利于去伪存真。换言之，投资者要花更多精力和时间去寻找好标的。
　　新品速递
　　富国中证娱乐指数增强基金，创新引入阿里大数据
　　富国基金一直走在创新前列，最近推出不少新品，引起投资者的关注，比如正在热销的富国中证娱乐指数增强基金。
　　在课堂上，张圣贤应投资者之邀介绍说，大家跟踪大盘表现会发现很多细分板块表现远远好于大盘，为了给投资者带来更多超额收益，也省去了选股的烦恼，富国基金公司推出了一些主题产品。中证娱乐指数增强基金的核心是为了让投资者分享娱乐板块的红利。为什么选娱乐呢?因为中国正迈入消费升级新时代。国际经验显示，当人均收入达到5000美元，文化消费将进入加速期，而目前我国人均收入已经突破4000美元。刚刚过去的春节，全国实现旅游总收入4233亿元，同比增长15.9%。去年中国有1.2亿人出境，这是什么概念呢，新西兰在南半球，这个国家2016年我们去了40多万人，新西兰全国人口也就在400多万人，我们去年一年去旅游的人数就占新西兰人口的近1/10。此外，6天“春节档”全国影院票房达33.01亿，与2016年同比上升8.47%;VR、AR……等等，娱乐产业在大幅度爆发。
　　据介绍，这次富国娱乐增强大数据在原来基础上额外引入了阿里大数据，阿里支付宝在移动支付领域占了50%以上份额，基本上现在大家吃喝玩乐都可以通过淘宝或支付宝展现出来，新增了阿里大数据，将更有信心创造更多收益。
　　互动问答
　　两会主题投资，看看这三个领域
　　问：对两会的一些主题投资，您对投资者有何建议?
　　答：一是贯穿全年的主题，就是改革，特别以国企改革为代表。此外，员工持股有所突破。上海最近提出要让5—10家企业员工持股。除了国有企业改革，从行业来看，重头戏应该是军工改革。还有一个主线是“一带一路”。建议大家重点关注三个点：改革、“一带一路”、京津冀。
　　不过无论国企改革还是“一带一路”，都是比较宽泛的主题，而且轮动比较快。如果投资者没有精力去跟踪标的轮换，建议投资一些主题类的基金。
　　问：有投资者问，能不能推荐一只产品长期持有?
　　答：今年开始国企改革进入深水区。国企如果通过改革释放红利以后，对经济的拉动非常有帮助。从未来3—5年来说，中国国有企业改革速度将加快。
　　问：富国推出很多指数增强型产品，请问指数产品与指数增强型产品的区别是什么?
　　答：所谓指数增强，就是在跟踪指数的前提下赚取超额收益。举个例子，比如沪深300指数，过去一年收益率跌了11%，如果做指数增强，可能只跌5—6%。从运作角度来说，指数增强投资模式是80%仓位跟指数一样匹配，剩下20%相对比较机动，在这20%里面可以在指数里面挑一些更好更加灵活的。
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